The National Weather Service offers many forecast and warning tools that individuals can use during a predicted flood event. From tools that allow users to monitor projected river heights to flood inundation maps that show which areas in the community will be underwater during floods, the capability and accuracy of flood forecasting has increased dramatically in recent years. Despite these advances, many people still fail to understand and respond to flood forecasts and warnings issued by NWS. Beyond technological advances in forecast lead-time and accuracy already achieved, what else can NWS do to improve its flood forecast and warning tools so they better motivate flood preparedness and warning response?
Nurture Nature Center, through several social science research studies over the past decade, has been working to understand how public and professional audiences understand and respond to various flood forecast approaches, and how to improve forecasting tools so that they better communicate flood risk and motivate people to take action. We have conducted roughly 90 focus groups engaging close to 1000 participants at locations across the United States. Through these projects, NNC and its research partner, East Carolina University, have engaged with residents, emergency managers, and water resource managers to get direct user response to various flood forecast tools. Through focus groups and surveys in these riverine and coastal communities, the research team has been able to provide meaningful feedback to NWS and the weather enterprise at large about how to improve the presentation and delivery of information for these audiences. Below are details of our studies and links to our reports.
Started in 2012, NNC’s project, “Flood Risk and Uncertainty: Assessing the Flood Forecast and Warning Tools of the National Weather Service” was a social science research study of NWS riverine flood forecast and warning products, and included focus groups and surveys in Easton, PA and Lambertville, NJ. Recommendations from that study have been operationalized by the National Weather Service. (Funded via NOAA Award Number NA12OAR4590115, September 1, 2012.)
As a follow-up to NNC’s riverine study, in 2014 NNC was awarded a research grant to study NWS’s coastal suite of flood forecast and warning products, with an emphasis on the use of emergency briefings as a communication tool. “They Had the Facts, Why Didn’t They Act: Understanding and Improving Public Response to NWS Coastal Flood Forecasts” involved focus groups and surveys of New Jersey communities affected by Superstorm Sandy. This study resulted in a redesign and standardization of emergency briefings for the Northeast Region of NWS. (Funded via NOAA Award Number NA130AR4830227: R/CSAP-2-NJ, January 2, 2014.)
In 2016, NOAA’s CSTAR program supported NNC and East Carolina University in a research project, “Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts work for Multiple Audiences,” which used focus groups and surveys with residents and emergency managers in West Virginia and Maryland to understand how NWS’ Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System works and could be improved for various audiences. (Funded to East Carolina University via NOAA Award NA16NWS468000, May 1, 2016, with subcontract to NNC.)
Advancing NNC’s prior research about how various audiences use and understand probabilistic hydrologic forecast information, NNC and East Carolina University undertook a two-year mixed-methods social science research study of three forecast products to propose improvements to the display and communication of uncertainty and probabilistic information in hydrologic forecasts. Specifically, the team studied how: a) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System and regional hydrographs, b) outputs from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service, and c) briefings for impact-based decision support services work together to convey the complexity of certainty and uncertainty in short, medium-term and seasonal hydrologic forecasts. Working with the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, as well as local Weather Forecast Offices, NNC used scenario-based focus groups, surveys, and interviews to test and develop prototype demonstrations of forecast uncertainty that can be incorporated into operations. Deliverables include a series of user-tested prototype products, developed in cooperation with operational offices as well as research findings and general recommendations for probabilistic communication. (Funded via NOAA Award Number NA18OAR4590365, October 1, 2018).
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Advancing NNC’s model of focus group and survey testing to reach underserved audiences in various regions across the country, including low-income urban, rural, and tribal communities not previously studied, “Expanding Audiences, Removing Barriers, Promoting Action: Addressing the diverse needs of audiences for flood forecast information” looked at a broad suite of probabilistic and other flood forecast tools for both riverine and flash flood risk. The study included partnering River Forecast Centers, Weather Forecast Offices, and local community-based organizations to identify and engage with diverse audiences in regions across the country to understand how residents receive, use, and understand flood forecast information to improve the flood products themselves and the communication channels used to share them. Two rounds of focus groups and surveys tested forecast products and identified what information gaps exist and what barriers prevent access and understanding of critical flood forecast information. Findings and recommendations are meant 1) to help communities better understand their flood risk to improve decision-making; 2) for NWS partners to understand and improve communication with their end-users; and 3) to inform potential weather forecast product redesign. (Funded via NOAA Award Number NA22OAR4590170, September 1, 2022).
NNC conducted a social science research project about several Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) products with focus groups and surveys in the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center area (State College, PA and Binghamton, NY areas) and the West Gulf River Forecast Center area (Houston area). This research, “Making FIMs Work for Multiple Users: Understanding the Value and Function of Flood Inundation Mapping to Support Decision Support”, sought to understand how these various FIM products can support decision-making, what barriers exist to using the FIM information and what improvements to FIM product design or delivery could remove those barriers. While FIM is valuable to both professional and residential stakeholders, design changes including additional details on infrastructure and impacts, delineation of rivers, clear labeling, color transparency, and information pop-up boxes, improved usefulness. (Funded via NOAA Award Number NA23OAR4590359, August 1, 2023).
Our broadest scope of work to date, “Improving Delivery of Weather Prediction Center Precipitation Products” is a multi-phase social science research study that will provide user testing and recommendations for refinement of precipitation products in partnership with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at NOAA. NNC will conduct interviews, focus groups, and surveys to test the WPC rainfall products with professional user audiences and to test the prototype of a new Urban Rain Rate Dashboard (URRD) in several of the thirty largest metropolitan areas in the country. Concurrently, NNC is partnering with Fountain Digital Consulting to perform a web usability study of the WPC website. The study will provide recommendations of 1) changes to precipitation products and their delivery to professional stakeholders, 2) suggested content and design for the URRD based on potential user feedback, and 3) design, structure, and content suggestions for the new WPC website. (Funded via NOAA Award Number NA23OAR4590137, February 1, 2023).
“Given the frequency and intensity of flooding not only in this region, but across the country, improving how people prepare for flooding is critical to reducing losses,” said NNC Director Rachel Hogan Carr. “These projects provide an excellent opportunity to help NWS understand how the public uses its flood forecast and warning tools, and what further refinements might improve public preparedness as people respond to news of impending river or coastal flood events.”