Morss, R.E., 2010: Interactions among flood predictions, decisions, and outcomes: Synthesis of three cases. Natural Hazards Review, 11(3), 83-96.

The aim of this paper is to showcase the importance of hydrometeorological predictions in the decision making process during floods. Flood forecasts are beneficial to both meteorologists as well as decision makers who could use that information to help inform their decisions. This paper compares and contrasts three different flood events and investigates the relationships between predictions, decisions, and outcomes. The three cases are the Red River basin flood of 1997 in ND, the Fort Collins flood in July 1997 in CO, and the Pescadero Creek basin flood in February 1998 in CA. In all three cases, the floods are entrenched within hydrometeorology and society, influencing predictions, decision making, and subsequent outcomes. The author suggests using both knowledge and alternative solutions when making decisions as different types of floods require different responses, as well as providing predictions that detail the uncertainty of the event with the aim of lessening the surprise.