Making Sense of Uncertainty: Improving the Use of Hydrologic Probabilistic Information in Decision-Making
Nurture Nature Center is delighted to announce that it has been awarded a $320,540 grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to advance its social science research work around flood risk and flood forecasts. The grant will support a two-year mixed-methods social science research study of three forecast products to propose improvements to the display and communication of uncertainty and probabilistic information in hydrologic forecasts.
The project, titled “Making Sense of Uncertainty: Improving the Use of Hydrologic Probabilistic Information in Decision-Making,” will help NNC to build on the findings from its prior studies about the needs users have for hydrologic forecast information. The study will engage residents, emergency managers and water resource managers in California, Colorado and New York to learn how they use, understand and make decisions based upon flood forecast products, and specifically, how emerging probabilistic forecast capacity can be most useful. The products studied include the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service and specifically hydrographs produced through AHPS and at regional offices; emergency briefings that notify of impending flood events; and centrally, probabilistic forecasts issued through the emerging Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System. NNC’s research team, including Dr. Burrell Montz of East Carolina University, will make recommendations to NOAA about the best ways to use and improve upon these products to communicate flood risk.Funds were made available through NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality (OWAQ), which helps to improve weather forecast information and products for the nation by supporting high-impact weather and air quality research that ultimately leads to improvements in NOAA’s operational forecasts that help save lives and reduce property damage.
Lehigh Valley Live coverage of award available at: https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/easton/index.ssf/2018/09/how_this_easton_nonprofit_is_u.html
Media release from Congressman Cartwright available at: https://cartwright.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/cartwright-announces-320540-noaa-grant-for-nurture-nature-center